Today has been one of the most important in this recent century. British have shown to the rest of the world their feelings about to be a close EU country.
I am Spanish, and some of my Spanish friends have been really surprised about this decision. They always thought that « EU remainers « would prevail against « Brexits ». I love history, and one of my favourist hobbies is studying not only Spanish history, but international ones. One of my favorites is UK’s history. So, in previous discussions with my friends about Brexit, I was announcing them that UK has a wide and open scope of the world, for several reasons : Geography, History, Economy, and people. UK has got very strength relationships with Europe, but also with other very important areas of the world in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and America. In fact UK keeps really strong links with old members of the UK empire as India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada, etc. So, considering UK focusing 100 % its target in Europe is, simply, a mistake in the essence.
In these debates, I always use the example of our country to my friends. Now, Spain seems to be essentially Pro-EU, and one of the most EU defenders countries. But, this behaviour, and feeling, is quite recent. We are « Europeans » for no more than 30 years. We do not have to forget that our history has been, in some way, developped as in UK : with an overseas scope. During long periods from our history, Spain have paid more attention to America, than to Europe. And, we must not forget that some of our typical sentences are « Spain is different ». So, also UK is.
Thus, today, Britain, using the « referendum », one of the most important ways of popular representation in democracy, has said NO to the European Union, and to EU regulations. Frankly, I have to say that I was one of the supporters in the shadow of the « Please, don’t go », but, today, I have to recognize that I have learnt a lesson of courage from people that, knowing they could suffer negative consequences in economy, and other uncomfortable situations due to EU separation, have decided to vote « No ».
With more than 12 years dealing with British customers, and friends, I have participated in several media Brexit’s discussions, and forums, and reading with curiosity arguments from both, particulars, and medias, about the case. And, today, influenced by the fresh air of freedom and democracy received from the fascinating example of popular expression, I get the freedom to leave myself go and express myself with total sincerity about my thoughts and opinion about this gripping scenario. (But, first, I kindly ask you in advance for apologies for those who do not share with me my personal opinion, inviting them, if the case, to use the most powerful way to defend a postion that nature has given to humans : The Word).
So, taking all of this into account, my interpretation of the 48-52 goes in this way :
– UK citizens say, we want EU, because the 48 % of the votes were going to remain. So, there is an extremely high percentage of Brits whom would like to continue being regulated by EU laws and principles.
– UK citizens say NO to EU. As opposite, the majority has vote NO to EU laws, NO to EU regulations, NO to EU principles, and NO to EU economy.
– Are UK citizens saying “No” to “Europe”?. I do not think so. In fact, as explained in my introduction, I am sure they feel Europeans, but « on their way ». And this is highly respectable, fair, and normal. In fact, Spanish, Italians, French, Germans, etc, I am sure we feel the same. We are Europeans, yes, but in our way…
– Will be this a crisis for the whole world, Europe, UK, or Spain ?. I do not think so. Countries are what they are. Economies, culture, and people, define how strong is a country. Obviously, in short term there will be some time of speculations, unestability, and polar changes of positive and negative pics, but, at the end UK will be UK, and the rest of the countries will be what they are, and what they « want » to be. So, I am sure that everything will be normalized in short term (always, of course, that politicians do not drive this even worse).
– People is thinking that UK will suffer economically about the separation. Frankly, I do not think so. UK is one of the biggest and more powerfull countries of the world. Who knows if, at the end, EU separation makes a positive change on their economy to make it even stronger ?
– Will GBP be devaluated ?. Yes. Unestability and uncertainity makes domestic currencies not secure so financially weak. But also EURO will be devaluated, in fact it is now happening. So, there will be a long distance EUR-GBP?.
So, GBP or EUR devaluated in respect of what ?. In respect of other currencies as USD !.
I have seen as today GBP has been devaluated in 10 % respect USD, BUT ONLY VERY SMALL IN RESPECT TO EUR !. I am following today’s quotation GBP/EUR, and, after decrease to 0,83 GBP/EUR at 07 :10 H has passed to 0,8086 at 10:00 H. If you consult the annual graphic from the last year, the difference from the average is not too much.
– Will Europe leave to deal with the UK as a one of the most important economies of the región?. Obviously not. I am sure not. Do you?.
– Will Spain defend interest of their essential tourism economy to facilitate British as the most important source of tourists, visitors, and expats in Spain ?. Again, YES. I am sure that Spain in the case does not find facilities of negotation at this respect using EU estructures, will initiate and promote colateral contacts with UK to defend Britain as one of the most important countries for residential, and tourism market in Spain. Also, for those 400-700.000 (big difference of data from different media) British expats who are living in Spain.
Please, do not forget that the 20 % of the property market in Spain is led by British, an average of half a million are living in Spain, and, 15 millions British visit Spain EVERY YEAR!.
As conclusion : I think that things, at the end, will be the same, but covered with different formalities.
UK citizens have expressed their feelings now. A message sent to politicians. Now is their turn, and politicans from both, EU and UK must now adequate that message to political decisions where, as « common people » (using Pulp’s most popular song) we are quite far away to foresee.
My intention is to prepare an individualized report on how this will affect to Property residential market in Spain, but, for this, I need first to pay attention to the next developments and position’s movements from politicians. So, hope to contact you soon with, that time, more proffessional approach.
As explained above, now is the time for politicians. They get the message now from UK, but I would like to send them another one, and pray them to hear it:
Please, do not let people suffering. People cannot be the victims of your agreements or reactions. Please, politicians from EU and UK, take into account that your countries are formed by PEOPLE. Citizens whom, in one or another way, must be protected on their interests, and positions, and this, over any other economical, financial, or commercial concepts. Please, make your biggest efforts to protect them, serve them, and to do not make them suffering for your decisions. Whatever you decide, please have your people on mind as an essential point of reference of your negotiations and projects.
By the moment, I sincerely send to British : Congratulations for this democratic example for the whole world.
A very Good Morning, Britain!
Juan Carlos Marhuenda Gómez
Senior Lawyer at TLA